Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pénzügyőr vs Bekescsaba 1912 — NB III - Southeast 2023

Pénzügyőr
Pénzügyőr
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bekescsaba 1912
Bekescsaba 1912
3/3/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 18Vasas Pasaréti úti Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pénzügyőr12%
×Draw20%
Bekescsaba 191269%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pénzügyőr
0.70
Bekescsaba 1912
2.05

Bekescsaba 1912 creates 193% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Pénzügyőr
0.87
Bekescsaba 1912
2.53

allows per match

Pénzügyőr
1.57
Bekescsaba 1912
0.53

finishing

Pénzügyőr+0.00on par
Bekescsaba 1912+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pénzügyőr ↓

Bekescsaba 1912 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–214%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pénzügyőr or draw
31%
Pénzügyőr or Bekescsaba 1912
80%
Draw or Bekescsaba 1912
88%

Winning margin

Pénzügyőr wins by 2+
3%
Bekescsaba 1912 wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Pénzügyőr 1+ goals
50%
Pénzügyőr 2+ goals
16%
Pénzügyőr 3+ goals
3%
Bekescsaba 1912 1+ goals
87%
Bekescsaba 1912 2+ goals
61%
Bekescsaba 1912 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)
15%
Bekescsaba 1912 (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pénzügyőr at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Bekescsaba 1912 away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pénzügyőr attack 0.87 + Bekescsaba 1912 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.70

Bekescsaba 1912 attack 2.53 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Pénzügyőr scores more
12%
level
20%
Bekescsaba 1912 scores more
69%

Bekescsaba 1912 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bekescsaba 1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Pénzügyőr 0–2 Bekescsaba 1912

Bekescsaba 1912 beat Pénzügyőr 2-0 in NB III - Southeast on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Vasas Pasaréti úti Sporttelep in Budapest.