Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bekescsaba 1912 vs Pénzügyőr — NB III - Southeast 2023

Bekescsaba 1912
Bekescsaba 1912
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pénzügyőr
Pénzügyőr
8/13/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 3Kórház utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bekescsaba 191269%
×Draw17%
Pénzügyőr14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bekescsaba 1912
2.49
Pénzügyőr
1.03

Bekescsaba 1912 creates 142% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bekescsaba 1912
3.20
Pénzügyőr
1.20

allows per match

Bekescsaba 1912
0.87
Pénzügyőr
1.77

finishing

Bekescsaba 1912+0.00on par
Pénzügyőr+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bekescsaba 1912 ↓

Pénzügyőr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bekescsaba 1912 or draw
86%
Bekescsaba 1912 or Pénzügyőr
83%
Draw or Pénzügyőr
31%

Winning margin

Bekescsaba 1912 wins by 2+
47%
Pénzügyőr wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bekescsaba 1912 1+ goals
92%
Bekescsaba 1912 2+ goals
71%
Bekescsaba 1912 3+ goals
45%
Pénzügyőr 1+ goals
64%
Pénzügyőr 2+ goals
28%
Pénzügyőr 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bekescsaba 1912 (draw refunded)
83%
Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bekescsaba 1912 at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Pénzügyőr away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bekescsaba 1912 attack 3.20 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.49

Pénzügyőr attack 1.20 + Bekescsaba 1912 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bekescsaba 1912 scores more
69%
level
17%
Pénzügyőr scores more
14%

Bekescsaba 1912 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bekescsaba 1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Bekescsaba 1912 2–1 Pénzügyőr

Bekescsaba 1912 beat Pénzügyőr 2-1 in NB III - Southeast on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Kórház utcai stadion in Békéscsaba.