Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Penya Independent vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Penya Independent
Penya Independent
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
1/7/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 15Camp de Futbol Municipal de Sant Miquel de Balansat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Penya Independent58%
×Draw22%
PE Sant Jordi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penya Independent
1.94
PE Sant Jordi
1.03

Penya Independent creates 88% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 65 away

creates per match

Penya Independent
2.34
PE Sant Jordi
1.18

allows per match

Penya Independent
0.88
PE Sant Jordi
1.55

finishing

Penya Independent+0.00on par
PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Independent ↓

PE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Penya Independent or draw
80%
Penya Independent or PE Sant Jordi
78%
Draw or PE Sant Jordi
42%

Winning margin

Penya Independent wins by 2+
34%
PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Penya Independent 1+ goals
86%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
58%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
30%
PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
64%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
28%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Penya Independent (draw refunded)
75%
PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Independent at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Independent attack 2.34 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Penya Independent defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Penya Independent scores more
58%
level
22%
PE Sant Jordi scores more
20%

Penya Independent at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Penya Independent 2–2 PE Sant Jordi

Penya Independent and PE Sant Jordi drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal de Sant Miquel de Balansat in Sant Miquel de Balansat.