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PE Sant Jordi vs Penya Independent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Penya Independent
Penya Independent
4/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Campo Municipal Kiko Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

PE Sant Jordi35%
×Draw28%
Penya Independent37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PE Sant Jordi
1.13
Penya Independent
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 32 away

creates per match

PE Sant Jordi
1.34
Penya Independent
1.09

allows per match

PE Sant Jordi
1.23
Penya Independent
0.91

finishing

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par
Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PE Sant Jordi ↓

Penya Independent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

PE Sant Jordi or draw
63%
PE Sant Jordi or Penya Independent
72%
Draw or Penya Independent
65%

Winning margin

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
14%
Penya Independent wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
68%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
31%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
11%
Penya Independent 1+ goals
69%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
32%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
49%
Penya Independent (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.34 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.13

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

PE Sant Jordi scores more
35%
level
28%
Penya Independent scores more
37%

Penya Independent at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: PE Sant Jordi 1–3 Penya Independent

Penya Independent beat PE Sant Jordi 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Kiko Serra in Sant Josep de sa Talaia.