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Penya Independent vs Migjorn — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Penya Independent
Penya Independent
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Migjorn
Migjorn
2/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Camp de Futbol Municipal de Sant Miquel de Balansat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Penya Independent79%
×Draw14%
Migjorn7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penya Independent
2.52
Migjorn
0.58

Penya Independent creates 334% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

Penya Independent
2.34
Migjorn
0.29

allows per match

Penya Independent
0.88
Migjorn
2.71

finishing

Penya Independent+0.00on par
Migjorn+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Independent ↓

Migjorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Penya Independent or draw
93%
Penya Independent or Migjorn
86%
Draw or Migjorn
21%

Winning margin

Penya Independent wins by 2+
57%
Migjorn wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Penya Independent 1+ goals
92%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
71%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
45%
Migjorn 1+ goals
44%
Migjorn 2+ goals
12%
Migjorn 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Penya Independent (draw refunded)
92%
Migjorn (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Independent at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Migjorn away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Independent attack 2.34 + Migjorn defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.52

Migjorn attack 0.29 + Penya Independent defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Penya Independent scores more
79%
level
14%
Migjorn scores more
7%

Penya Independent at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penya Independent vs Migjorn

Penya Independent beat Migjorn 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 5, 2025.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal de Sant Miquel de Balansat in Sant Miquel de Balansat.