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Migjorn vs Penya Independent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Migjorn
Migjorn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Penya Independent
Penya Independent
9/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Campo Municipal Las Arenas de Fornells

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Migjorn23%
×Draw25%
Penya Independent52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Migjorn
0.96
Penya Independent
1.60

Penya Independent creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

creates per match

Migjorn
1.00
Penya Independent
1.09

allows per match

Migjorn
2.12
Penya Independent
0.91

finishing

Migjorn+0.00on par
Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Migjorn ↓

Penya Independent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Migjorn or draw
48%
Migjorn or Penya Independent
75%
Draw or Penya Independent
77%

Winning margin

Migjorn wins by 2+
8%
Penya Independent wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Migjorn 1+ goals
62%
Migjorn 2+ goals
25%
Migjorn 3+ goals
7%
Penya Independent 1+ goals
80%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
47%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Migjorn (draw refunded)
30%
Penya Independent (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Migjorn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Migjorn attack 1.00 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Migjorn defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Migjorn scores more
23%
level
25%
Penya Independent scores more
52%

Penya Independent at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Migjorn vs Penya Independent

Migjorn and Penya Independent drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Las Arenas de Fornells in Menorca.