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Penya Independent vs Mercadal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Penya Independent
Penya Independent
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mercadal
Mercadal
11/16/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Camp de Futbol Municipal de Sant Miquel de Balansat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Penya Independent62%
×Draw22%
Mercadal16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penya Independent
1.90
Mercadal
0.86

Penya Independent creates 121% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 86 away

creates per match

Penya Independent
2.34
Mercadal
0.84

allows per match

Penya Independent
0.88
Mercadal
1.45

finishing

Penya Independent+0.00on par
Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Independent ↓

Mercadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Penya Independent or draw
84%
Penya Independent or Mercadal
78%
Draw or Mercadal
38%

Winning margin

Penya Independent wins by 2+
37%
Mercadal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Penya Independent 1+ goals
85%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
56%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
29%
Mercadal 1+ goals
58%
Mercadal 2+ goals
21%
Mercadal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Penya Independent (draw refunded)
79%
Mercadal (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Independent at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Independent attack 2.34 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.90

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Penya Independent defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Penya Independent scores more
62%
level
22%
Mercadal scores more
16%

Penya Independent at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penya Independent vs Mercadal

Penya Independent beat Mercadal 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal de Sant Miquel de Balansat in Sant Miquel de Balansat.