Mercadal 0–1 Penya Independent: Result & Stats

Mercadal

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Penya Independent

1/21/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 17Estadio San Martì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mercadal38%

×Draw29%

Penya Independent33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MercadalExpected goals in this matchPenya Independent

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.04

Mercadal

1.15

Penya Independent

1.04

Mercadal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 32 away

1.38

creates per match

1.09

0.98

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Mercadal

1.38

Penya Independent

1.09

allows per match

Mercadal

0.98

Penya Independent

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mercadal+0.00on par

Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercadal ↓

Penya Independent →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mercadal or draw

67%

Mercadal or Penya Independent

71%

Draw or Penya Independent

62%

Winning margin

Mercadal wins by 2+

16%

Penya Independent wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mercadal 1+ goals

68%

Mercadal 2+ goals

32%

Mercadal 3+ goals

11%

Penya Independent 1+ goals

65%

Penya Independent 2+ goals

28%

Penya Independent 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mercadal (draw refunded)

54%

Penya Independent (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mercadal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mercadal attack 1.38 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.15

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Mercadal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mercadal scores more

38%

level

29%

Penya Independent scores more

33%

Mercadal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff