Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Penya Independent vs Inter Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Penya Independent
Penya Independent
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Manacor
Inter Manacor
10/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Camp De Futbol Municipal De Sant Miquel De Balansat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Penya Independent75%
×Draw16%
Inter Manacor9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penya Independent
2.46
Inter Manacor
0.73

Penya Independent creates 237% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Penya Independent
2.34
Inter Manacor
0.59

allows per match

Penya Independent
0.88
Inter Manacor
2.59

finishing

Penya Independent+0.00on par
Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Independent ↓

Inter Manacor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Penya Independent or draw
91%
Penya Independent or Inter Manacor
84%
Draw or Inter Manacor
25%

Winning margin

Penya Independent wins by 2+
52%
Inter Manacor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Penya Independent 1+ goals
91%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
70%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
44%
Inter Manacor 1+ goals
52%
Inter Manacor 2+ goals
17%
Inter Manacor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Penya Independent (draw refunded)
89%
Inter Manacor (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Independent at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Inter Manacor away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Independent attack 2.34 + Inter Manacor defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.46

Inter Manacor attack 0.59 + Penya Independent defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Penya Independent scores more
75%
level
16%
Inter Manacor scores more
9%

Penya Independent at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Penya Independent 1–0 Inter Manacor

Penya Independent beat Inter Manacor 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Camp De Futbol Municipal De Sant Miquel De Balansat in Sant Miquel de Balansat.