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Inter Manacor vs Penya Independent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Inter Manacor
Inter Manacor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Penya Independent
Penya Independent
2/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 21Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Manacor21%
×Draw24%
Penya Independent54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Manacor
0.96
Penya Independent
1.69

Penya Independent creates 76% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Inter Manacor
1.00
Penya Independent
1.09

allows per match

Inter Manacor
2.28
Penya Independent
0.91

finishing

Inter Manacor+0.00on par
Penya Independent+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Manacor ↓

Penya Independent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter Manacor or draw
46%
Inter Manacor or Penya Independent
76%
Draw or Penya Independent
79%

Winning margin

Inter Manacor wins by 2+
7%
Penya Independent wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Inter Manacor 1+ goals
62%
Inter Manacor 2+ goals
25%
Inter Manacor 3+ goals
7%
Penya Independent 1+ goals
82%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
50%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Inter Manacor (draw refunded)
28%
Penya Independent (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Manacor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.28 · 32 matches

Penya Independent away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Manacor attack 1.00 + Penya Independent defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Penya Independent attack 1.09 + Inter Manacor defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Inter Manacor scores more
21%
level
24%
Penya Independent scores more
54%

Penya Independent at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Manacor vs Penya Independent

Penya Independent beat Inter Manacor 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera in Manacor.