Pennarossa 2–1 Juvenes / Dogana: Result & Stats

Pennarossa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Juvenes / Dogana

10/27/2021

Coppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio di Dogana Ezio Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pennarossa33%

×Draw26%

Juvenes / Dogana42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PennarossaExpected goals in this matchJuvenes / Dogana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.46

Pennarossa

1.27

Juvenes / Dogana

1.46

Juvenes / Dogana creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.14

creates per match

1.20

1.71

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Pennarossa

1.14

Juvenes / Dogana

1.20

allows per match

Pennarossa

1.71

Juvenes / Dogana

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pennarossa+0.00on par

Juvenes / Dogana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pennarossa ↓

Juvenes / Dogana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pennarossa or draw

58%

Pennarossa or Juvenes / Dogana

74%

Draw or Juvenes / Dogana

67%

Winning margin

Pennarossa wins by 2+

14%

Juvenes / Dogana wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Pennarossa 1+ goals

72%

Pennarossa 2+ goals

36%

Pennarossa 3+ goals

14%

Juvenes / Dogana 1+ goals

77%

Juvenes / Dogana 2+ goals

43%

Juvenes / Dogana 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Pennarossa (draw refunded)

44%

Juvenes / Dogana (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pennarossa at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Juvenes / Dogana away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pennarossa attack 1.14 + Juvenes / Dogana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Juvenes / Dogana attack 1.20 + Pennarossa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pennarossa scores more

33%

level

26%

Juvenes / Dogana scores more

42%

Juvenes / Dogana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juvenes / Dogana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff