Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Juvenes / Dogana vs Pennarossa — Coppa Titano 2020

Juvenes / Dogana
Juvenes / Dogana
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pennarossa
Pennarossaadvanced
9/28/2021Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Juvenes / Dogana44%
×Draw28%
Pennarossa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juvenes / Dogana
1.29
Pennarossa
0.98

Juvenes / Dogana creates 32% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Pennarossa
0.57

allows per match

Juvenes / Dogana
1.40
Pennarossa
1.57

finishing

Juvenes / Dogana+0.00on par
Pennarossa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juvenes / Dogana ↓

Pennarossa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Juvenes / Dogana or draw
72%
Juvenes / Dogana or Pennarossa
72%
Draw or Pennarossa
56%

Winning margin

Juvenes / Dogana wins by 2+
20%
Pennarossa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Juvenes / Dogana 1+ goals
72%
Juvenes / Dogana 2+ goals
37%
Juvenes / Dogana 3+ goals
14%
Pennarossa 1+ goals
62%
Pennarossa 2+ goals
26%
Pennarossa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Juvenes / Dogana (draw refunded)
61%
Pennarossa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juvenes / Dogana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Pennarossa away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juvenes / Dogana attack 1.00 + Pennarossa defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pennarossa attack 0.57 + Juvenes / Dogana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juvenes / Dogana scores more
44%
level
28%
Pennarossa scores more
28%

Juvenes / Dogana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juvenes / Dogana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Juvenes / Dogana 0–2 Pennarossa

Pennarossa beat Juvenes / Dogana 2-0 in Coppa Titano on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva in Acquaviva.