Pennarossa 0–0 Faetano: Result & Stats

Pennarossa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Faetano

10/22/2024

Coppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio di Domagnano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pennarossa49%

×Draw25%

Faetano26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PennarossaExpected goals in this matchFaetano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.07

Pennarossa

1.57

Faetano

1.07

Pennarossa creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.14

creates per match

0.43

1.71

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Pennarossa

1.14

Faetano

0.43

allows per match

Pennarossa

1.71

Faetano

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pennarossa+0.00on par

Faetano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pennarossa ↓

Faetano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pennarossa or draw

74%

Pennarossa or Faetano

75%

Draw or Faetano

51%

Winning margin

Pennarossa wins by 2+

25%

Faetano wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pennarossa 1+ goals

79%

Pennarossa 2+ goals

46%

Pennarossa 3+ goals

21%

Faetano 1+ goals

66%

Faetano 2+ goals

29%

Faetano 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pennarossa (draw refunded)

65%

Faetano (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pennarossa at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Faetano away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pennarossa attack 1.14 + Faetano defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Faetano attack 0.43 + Pennarossa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pennarossa scores more

49%

level

25%

Faetano scores more

26%

Pennarossa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pennarossa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

F. Capriotti← A. Brisigotti

55'

C. Martini

59'

T. Famiglietti← N. Gavelli

77'

A. De Angelis← M. Dulcetti

90+4'

D. Fusco← R. Riccio

Pennarossa

Faetano

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Dolci

59'▲T. Famiglietti←▼N. Gavelli

Pennarossa substitutes

FamigliettiBoschiFabbriRenzettiTroffei

Manager: A. Ricchiuti

41'▲F. Capriotti←▼A. Brisigotti

77'▲A. De Angelis←▼M. Dulcetti

90+4'▲D. Fusco←▼R. Riccio

Faetano substitutes

CapriottiAngelisFuscoRaimondiRenziBallettaRavieleTerenzi