Pennarossa 2–0 Faetano: Result & Stats

Pennarossa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Faetano

L. Cobo 58'

C. Martini 26'

10/18/2024

League #404 · Round 6Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pennarossa40%

×Draw23%

Faetano37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PennarossaExpected goals in this matchFaetano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.60

Pennarossa

1.69

Faetano

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 45 away

1.27

creates per match

1.20

2.00

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Pennarossa

1.27

Faetano

1.20

allows per match

Pennarossa

2.00

Faetano

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pennarossa+0.00on par

Faetano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pennarossa ↓

Faetano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Pennarossa or draw

63%

Pennarossa or Faetano

77%

Draw or Faetano

60%

Winning margin

Pennarossa wins by 2+

21%

Faetano wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Pennarossa 1+ goals

82%

Pennarossa 2+ goals

50%

Pennarossa 3+ goals

24%

Faetano 1+ goals

80%

Faetano 2+ goals

47%

Faetano 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Pennarossa (draw refunded)

52%

Faetano (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pennarossa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Faetano away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pennarossa attack 1.27 + Faetano defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.69

Faetano attack 1.20 + Pennarossa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pennarossa scores more

40%

level

23%

Faetano scores more

37%

Pennarossa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pennarossa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

C. Martini

46'

J. Raviele← F. Gallo

54'

M. Dulcetti← F. Capriotti

56'

M. Nanni← F. Jabi

56'

O. Sehail← R. Michelotti

58'

L. Cobo

63'

D. Fusco← M. Parisi

70'

N. Gavelli← T. Famiglietti

81'

A. Raimondi← A. Palumbo

82'

M. Fabbri← L. Cobo

Pennarossa

Faetano

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cobo

Manager: F. Dolci

56'▲M. Nanni←▼F. Jabi

56'▲O. Sehail←▼R. Michelotti

70'▲N. Gavelli←▼T. Famiglietti

82'▲M. Fabbri←▼L. Cobo

Pennarossa substitutes

NanniSehailGavelliFabbriBarbieri

Manager: A. Ricchiuti

46'▲J. Raviele←▼F. Gallo

54'▲M. Dulcetti←▼F. Capriotti

63'▲D. Fusco←▼M. Parisi

81'▲A. Raimondi←▼A. Palumbo

Faetano substitutes

RavieleDulcettiFuscoRaimondiAngelisRenziCerchiaraForconesiRiccio