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Penn vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Penn
Penn
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
9/12/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 47FNB FIELD (Harrisburg, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Penn38%
×Draw27%
Indy Eleven36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penn
1.28
Indy Eleven
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 127 away

creates per match

Penn
1.00
Indy Eleven
1.10

allows per match

Penn
1.38
Indy Eleven
1.56

finishing

Penn+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penn ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Penn or draw
64%
Penn or Indy Eleven
73%
Draw or Indy Eleven
62%

Winning margin

Penn wins by 2+
17%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Penn 1+ goals
72%
Penn 2+ goals
37%
Penn 3+ goals
14%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
71%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
35%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Penn (draw refunded)
51%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penn attack 1.00 + Indy Eleven defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + Penn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Penn scores more
38%
level
27%
Indy Eleven scores more
36%

Penn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Penn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Penn 1–0 Indy Eleven

Penn beat Indy Eleven 1-0 in USL Championship on September 12, 2018.

The match was played at FNB FIELD (Harrisburg, Pennsylvania).