Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Indy Eleven vs Penn — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Penn
Penn
6/30/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 27Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Indy Eleven45%
×Draw26%
Penn29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.47
Penn
1.13

Indy Eleven creates 30% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 13 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.48
Penn
1.15

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.11
Penn
1.46

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Penn+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Penn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
71%
Indy Eleven or Penn
74%
Draw or Penn
55%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
22%
Penn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
77%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
43%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
18%
Penn 1+ goals
68%
Penn 2+ goals
31%
Penn 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
61%
Penn (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Penn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.48 + Penn defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.47

Penn attack 1.15 + Indy Eleven defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
45%
level
26%
Penn scores more
29%

Indy Eleven at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 1–1 Penn

Indy Eleven and Penn drew 1-1 in USL Championship on June 30, 2018.

The match was played at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana).