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Peninsula Power vs Logan Lightning — Queensland NPL 2026

Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
J. Hitchcock 90+3'
L. Plummer 43'
A. Pengelly 33'
McLean 19'
S. Cronin 14'
J. Coutts 76'
3/5/2021Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 1A.J. Kelly Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Peninsula Power51%
×Draw21%
Logan Lightning28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peninsula Power
2.15
Logan Lightning
1.54

Peninsula Power creates 40% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 24 away

creates per match

Peninsula Power
2.33
Logan Lightning
1.88

allows per match

Peninsula Power
1.20
Logan Lightning
1.96

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par
Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

Logan Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw
72%
Peninsula Power or Logan Lightning
79%
Draw or Logan Lightning
49%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+
31%
Logan Lightning wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals
88%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
63%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
36%
Logan Lightning 1+ goals
79%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
45%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
65%
Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 2.33 + Logan Lightning defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.15

Logan Lightning attack 1.88 + Peninsula Power defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Peninsula Power scores more
51%
level
21%
Logan Lightning scores more
28%

Peninsula Power at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
S. Cronin
19'
McLean
33'
A. Pengelly
43'
L. Plummer
76'
J. Coutts
90+3'
J. Hitchcock

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Peninsula Power 5–1 Logan Lightning

Peninsula Power beat Logan Lightning 5-1 in Queensland NPL on March 5, 2021.

Goals: S. Cronin (14'), McLean (19'), A. Pengelly (33'), L. Plummer (43'), J. Coutts (76'), J. Hitchcock (90+3').

The match was played at A.J. Kelly Park in Brisbane.