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Peninsula Power vs Logan Lightning — League #191 2026

Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
FT
3 – 1
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
6/20/2017League #191League #191 · Round 15A.J. Kelly Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Peninsula Power40%
×Draw25%
Logan Lightning35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peninsula Power
1.51
Logan Lightning
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Peninsula Power
1.20
Logan Lightning
1.18

allows per match

Peninsula Power
1.60
Logan Lightning
1.82

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par
Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

Logan Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw
65%
Peninsula Power or Logan Lightning
75%
Draw or Logan Lightning
60%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+
20%
Logan Lightning wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals
78%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
44%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
19%
Logan Lightning 1+ goals
75%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
40%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
54%
Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 1.20 + Logan Lightning defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.51

Logan Lightning attack 1.18 + Peninsula Power defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Peninsula Power scores more
40%
level
25%
Logan Lightning scores more
35%

Peninsula Power at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peninsula Power vs Logan Lightning

Peninsula Power beat Logan Lightning 3-1 in League #191 on June 20, 2017.

The match was played at A.J. Kelly Park in Brisbane.