Peninsula Power 3–2 Lions: Result & Stats

Peninsula Power

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Lions

4/25/2026

Queensland NPL · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Peninsula Power38%

×Draw22%

Lions40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peninsula PowerExpected goals in this matchLions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.85

Peninsula Power

1.81

Lions

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 100 away

2.42

creates per match

2.46

1.25

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Peninsula Power

2.42

Lions

2.46

allows per match

Peninsula Power

1.25

Lions

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par

Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw

60%

Peninsula Power or Lions

78%

Draw or Lions

62%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+

20%

Lions wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals

84%

Peninsula Power 2+ goals

54%

Peninsula Power 3+ goals

27%

Lions 1+ goals

84%

Lions 2+ goals

55%

Lions 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)

49%

Lions (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.25 · 97 matches

Lions away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 2.42 + Lions defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lions attack 2.46 + Peninsula Power defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Peninsula Power scores more

38%

level

22%

Lions scores more

40%

Lions at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff