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Lions vs Peninsula Power — Queensland NPL 2026

Lions
Lions
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
5/25/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 12Lions FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Lions47%
×Draw21%
Peninsula Power32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lions
2.04
Peninsula Power
1.66

Lions creates 23% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 96 away

creates per match

Lions
2.85
Peninsula Power
2.17

allows per match

Lions
1.15
Peninsula Power
1.24

finishing

Lions+0.00on par
Peninsula Power+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lions ↓

Peninsula Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lions or draw
68%
Lions or Peninsula Power
79%
Draw or Peninsula Power
53%

Winning margin

Lions wins by 2+
27%
Peninsula Power wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lions 1+ goals
87%
Lions 2+ goals
60%
Lions 3+ goals
33%
Peninsula Power 1+ goals
81%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
49%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lions (draw refunded)
59%
Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lions at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Peninsula Power away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.24 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lions attack 2.85 + Peninsula Power defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.04

Peninsula Power attack 2.17 + Lions defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lions scores more
47%
level
21%
Peninsula Power scores more
32%

Lions at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lions vs Peninsula Power

Lions beat Peninsula Power 3-1 in Queensland NPL on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Lions FC Stadium in Brisbane.