Peninsula Power 4–2 Gold Coast United

Peninsula Power

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gold Coast United

3/20/2026

Queensland NPL · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Peninsula Power56%

×Draw21%

Gold Coast United24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peninsula PowerExpected goals in this matchGold Coast United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.35

Peninsula Power

2.17

Gold Coast United

1.35

Peninsula Power creates 61% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 91 away

2.42

creates per match

1.45

1.25

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Peninsula Power

2.42

Gold Coast United

1.45

allows per match

Peninsula Power

1.25

Gold Coast United

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par

Gold Coast United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

Gold Coast United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw

76%

Peninsula Power or Gold Coast United

79%

Draw or Gold Coast United

44%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+

34%

Gold Coast United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals

89%

Peninsula Power 2+ goals

64%

Peninsula Power 3+ goals

36%

Gold Coast United 1+ goals

74%

Gold Coast United 2+ goals

39%

Gold Coast United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)

70%

Gold Coast United (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.25 · 97 matches

Gold Coast United away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.92 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 2.42 + Gold Coast United defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.17

Gold Coast United attack 1.45 + Peninsula Power defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Peninsula Power scores more

56%

level

21%

Gold Coast United scores more

24%

Peninsula Power at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff