Gold Coast United 0–4 Peninsula Power

Gold Coast United

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Peninsula Power

5/30/2026

Queensland NPL · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Gold Coast United29%

×Draw23%

Peninsula Power48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gold Coast UnitedExpected goals in this matchPeninsula Power

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.79

Gold Coast United

1.36

Peninsula Power

1.79

Peninsula Power creates 32% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 96 away

1.49

creates per match

2.17

1.42

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Gold Coast United

1.49

Peninsula Power

2.17

allows per match

Gold Coast United

1.42

Peninsula Power

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gold Coast United+0.00on par

Peninsula Power+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gold Coast United ↓

Peninsula Power →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Gold Coast United or draw

52%

Gold Coast United or Peninsula Power

77%

Draw or Peninsula Power

71%

Winning margin

Gold Coast United wins by 2+

13%

Peninsula Power wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Gold Coast United 1+ goals

74%

Gold Coast United 2+ goals

39%

Gold Coast United 3+ goals

16%

Peninsula Power 1+ goals

83%

Peninsula Power 2+ goals

53%

Peninsula Power 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Gold Coast United (draw refunded)

38%

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gold Coast United at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.42 · 93 matches

Peninsula Power away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.24 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gold Coast United attack 1.49 + Peninsula Power defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Peninsula Power attack 2.17 + Gold Coast United defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gold Coast United scores more

29%

level

23%

Peninsula Power scores more

48%

Peninsula Power at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff