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Peninsula Power vs Gold Coast Knights — Queensland NPL 2026

Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights
3/9/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 3A.J. Kelly Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Peninsula Power42%
×Draw22%
Gold Coast Knights36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peninsula Power
1.85
Gold Coast Knights
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 93 away

creates per match

Peninsula Power
2.42
Gold Coast Knights
2.12

allows per match

Peninsula Power
1.25
Gold Coast Knights
1.28

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par
Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

Gold Coast Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw
64%
Peninsula Power or Gold Coast Knights
78%
Draw or Gold Coast Knights
58%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+
23%
Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals
84%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
55%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
28%
Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals
82%
Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals
50%
Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
54%
Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.25 · 97 matches

Gold Coast Knights away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 2.42 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.85

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.12 + Peninsula Power defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peninsula Power scores more
42%
level
22%
Gold Coast Knights scores more
36%

Peninsula Power at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Peninsula Power 1–0 Gold Coast Knights

Peninsula Power beat Gold Coast Knights 1-0 in Queensland NPL on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at A.J. Kelly Park in Brisbane.