Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gold Coast Knights vs Peninsula Power — Queensland NPL 2026

Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
6/8/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 14Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Gold Coast Knights42%
×Draw23%
Peninsula Power35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gold Coast Knights
1.77
Peninsula Power
1.59

Gold Coast Knights creates 11% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 96 away

creates per match

Gold Coast Knights
2.29
Peninsula Power
2.17

allows per match

Gold Coast Knights
1.01
Peninsula Power
1.24

finishing

Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par
Peninsula Power+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gold Coast Knights ↓

Peninsula Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gold Coast Knights or draw
65%
Gold Coast Knights or Peninsula Power
77%
Draw or Peninsula Power
58%

Winning margin

Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+
22%
Peninsula Power wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals
83%
Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals
53%
Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals
26%
Peninsula Power 1+ goals
80%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
47%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)
55%
Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gold Coast Knights at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.01 · 100 matches

Peninsula Power away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.24 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.29 + Peninsula Power defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.77

Peninsula Power attack 2.17 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gold Coast Knights scores more
42%
level
23%
Peninsula Power scores more
35%

Gold Coast Knights at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Gold Coast Knights 3–2 Peninsula Power

Gold Coast Knights beat Peninsula Power 3-2 in Queensland NPL on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1 in Gold Coast.