Kitzbühel vs Rheindorf Altach II — Regionalliga - West 2014
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Kitzbühel50%
Rheindorf Altach II25%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kitzbühel creates 54% more chances
Season form · 23 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kitzbühel ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kitzbühel at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches
Rheindorf Altach II away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kitzbühel attack 1.04 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.60
Rheindorf Altach II attack 1.04 + Kitzbühel defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Kitzbühel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Kitzbühel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Kitzbühel substitutes
Head to Head
Wacker Innsbruck
Kuchl
Seekirchen
Imst
Dornbirn
Bischofshofen
SVG Reichenau
Hohenems
SchwazKitzbühel
Wals-Grünau
TSV St. Johann
LustenauRheindorf Altach II
Kufstein
Pinzgau Saalfelden
LauterachIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kitzbühel host Rheindorf Altach II on Friday, 8 May 2015 at 17:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - West 2014/2015 season.
Match Recap: Kitzbühel vs Rheindorf Altach II
Rheindorf Altach II beat Kitzbühel 2-1 in Regionalliga - West on May 8, 2015.
Goals: I. Kovacec (34'), Z. Horváth (36'), M. Schwärzler (64').
The match was played at Sportplatz Kitzbühel-Langau in Kitzbühel.