Penarol 2–1 Olimpia: Result & Stats

Penarol

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpia

F. Carrizo 49'

J. Ramos 45+2'

W. González 80'

4/13/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Campeón del Siglo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Penarol48%

×Draw28%

Olimpia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PenarolExpected goals in this matchOlimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.84

Penarol

1.33

Olimpia

0.84

Penarol creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.80

0.88

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Penarol

1.00

Olimpia

0.80

allows per match

Penarol

0.88

Olimpia

1.67

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Penarol+0.14scores more

Olimpia+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penarol ↓

Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Penarol or draw

76%

Penarol or Olimpia

72%

Draw or Olimpia

52%

Winning margin

Penarol wins by 2+

23%

Olimpia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Penarol 1+ goals

74%

Penarol 2+ goals

38%

Penarol 3+ goals

15%

Olimpia 1+ goals

57%

Olimpia 2+ goals

21%

Olimpia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Penarol (draw refunded)

67%

Olimpia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penarol at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 7 matches

Olimpia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.67 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penarol attack 1.00 + Olimpia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Olimpia attack 0.80 + Penarol defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Penarol scores more

48%

level

28%

Olimpia scores more

24%

Penarol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Bentancourt

Penarol · F

7.6

Match Events

45+2'

J. Ramos↳ R. Bentancourt

46'

F. Carrizo← Agustín Álvarez Martínez

46'

I. Laquintana← M. Aguirregaray

49'

F. Carrizo↳ R. Bentancourt

55'

H. Quintana← M. Gómez

55'

W. González← D. González

59'

64'

69'

69'

69'

S. Otálvaro← A. Silva

75'

L. Viatri← R. Bentancourt

80'

W. González↳ J. Recalde

85'

A. Da Silveira← R. Arias

86'

D. Duarte← F. Cardozo

88'

R. Ortiz

88'

M. Gamarra

90+3'

R. Saravia← W. Gargano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PenarolOlimpia

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots15

2Corners6

11Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots15

5On Target6

2Off Target5

2Blocked4

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

361Total Passes455

249Accurate Passes332

69%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1