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Olimpia vs Penarol — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Olimpia
Olimpia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Penarol
Penarol
4/23/2025CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Olimpia52%
×Draw26%
Penarol22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia
1.54
Penarol
0.91

Olimpia creates 69% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

creates per match

Olimpia
1.54
Penarol
0.73

allows per match

Olimpia
1.08
Penarol
1.55

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par
Penarol+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Penarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw
78%
Olimpia or Penarol
74%
Draw or Penarol
48%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+
27%
Penarol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals
79%
Olimpia 2+ goals
45%
Olimpia 3+ goals
20%
Penarol 1+ goals
60%
Penarol 2+ goals
23%
Penarol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)
70%
Penarol (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Penarol away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.54 + Penarol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Penarol attack 0.73 + Olimpia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olimpia scores more
52%
level
26%
Penarol scores more
22%

Olimpia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
M. CampanaPenarolPenarol · G
9.2

Match Events

16'
Martín CampañaCard upgrade
19'
Maximiliano Olivera
22'
Richard Ortiz
46'
D. G. Garcia Cardozo← L. Umpierrez
50'
Maximiliano SilveraPenalty confirmed
66'
J. Dominguez← A. F. Franco Zayas
70'
A. Alfonzo← L. Lopez
70'
H. Fernandez← R. Redes
70'
H. Villalba← M. Silvera
76'
Rodrigo Pérez
78'
M. Gomez← R. Ortiz
78'
L. Pratto← I. Leguizamon
90+4'
Derlis González
90+1'
J. Mendez← R. Perez

Possession

63%Olimpia

Shots

20Olimpia

Pass accuracy

54%Olimpia

Statistics

OlimpiaPenarol
Overview
63%Possession37%
20Total Shots8
1.24Expected Goals (xG)1.55
6Corners3
19Fouls15
Shots
20Total Shots8
8On Target3
3Off Target5
9Blocked0
10Inside Box6
10Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
426Total Passes257
341Accurate Passes177
80%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
3Saves9
0.57Goals Prevented0.57
Discipline
19Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Olimpia vs Penarol

Olimpia and Penarol drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 23, 2025.

Olimpia controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asuncion.