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Penarol vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Penarol
Penarol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
Cristian Rodríguez 70'
4/10/2019CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Campeón del Siglo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Penarol60%
×Draw24%
LDU de Quito16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penarol
1.65
LDU de Quito
0.70

Penarol creates 136% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

Penarol
1.71
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Penarol
0.57
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Penarol+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penarol ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Penarol or draw
84%
Penarol or LDU de Quito
76%
Draw or LDU de Quito
40%

Winning margin

Penarol wins by 2+
33%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Penarol 1+ goals
81%
Penarol 2+ goals
49%
Penarol 3+ goals
23%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
50%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
16%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Penarol (draw refunded)
79%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penarol at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 21 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penarol attack 1.71 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.65

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Penarol defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Penarol scores more
60%
level
24%
LDU de Quito scores more
16%

Penarol at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Cristian RodríguezPenarolPenarol · M
7.9

Match Events

8'
Nicolás Freire
28'
Gabriel Fernández
51'
Cristian Lema
51'
Edison Vega← Anderson Julio
55'
Rodrigo Aguirre← Juan Anangonó
66'
Lucas Viatri← Gabriel Fernández
70'
Cristian Rodríguez↳ Brian Rodríguez
75'
Marcel Novick
76'
Luis Chicaiza← José Quintero
77'
Luis Chicaiza
84'
Rodrigo Rojo← Brian Rodríguez
88'
Agustín Canobbio← Darwin Nuñez

Possession

55%Penarol

Shots

15Penarol

Pass accuracy

51%Penarol

Statistics

PenarolLDU
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots9
7Corners3
10Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots9
5On Target2
7Off Target4
3Blocked3
8Inside Box5
7Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
441Total Passes369
355Accurate Passes286
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Penarol vs LDU de Quito

Penarol beat LDU de Quito 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 10, 2019.

Goals: Cristian Rodríguez (70').

Penarol controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Campeón del Siglo in Montevideo.