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LDU de Quito vs Penarol — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Penarol
Penarol
Rodrigo Aguirre 82'
Nicolás Freire 25'
3/8/2019CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

LDU de Quito65%
×Draw21%
Penarol14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.92
Penarol
0.74

LDU de Quito creates 159% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
2.29
Penarol
0.73

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.75
Penarol
1.55

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Penarol+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Penarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
86%
LDU de Quito or Penarol
79%
Draw or Penarol
35%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
40%
Penarol wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
85%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
57%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
30%
Penarol 1+ goals
52%
Penarol 2+ goals
17%
Penarol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
83%
Penarol (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Penarol away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Penarol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.92

Penarol attack 0.73 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
65%
level
21%
Penarol scores more
14%

LDU de Quito at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
Adrián GabbariniLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito · G
8.2

Match Events

12'
José Ayoví← Anderson Julio
25'
Nicolás Freire
44'
Walter Gargano
56'
Rodrigo Aguirre← Juan Anangonó
57'
Gabriel Fernández← Luis Acevedo
74'
Darwin Nuñez← Brian Rodríguez
80'
Lucas Viatri← Agustín Canobbio
82'
Rodrigo Aguirre↳ José Ayoví
89'
Edison Vega← Jacob Murillo
90'
Rodrigo Aguirre
90'
Gastón Rodríguez

Possession

54%LDU

Shots

18LDU

Pass accuracy

52%LDU

Statistics

LDUPenarol
Overview
54%Possession46%
18Total Shots11
8Corners3
15Fouls6
Shots
18Total Shots11
10On Target5
6Off Target6
2Blocked0
14Inside Box5
4Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
379Total Passes326
306Accurate Passes242
81%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
5Saves7
Discipline
15Fouls6
1Yellow Cards2
6Offsides0

CONMEBOL Libertadores: LDU de Quito 2–0 Penarol

LDU de Quito beat Penarol 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 8, 2019.

Goals: Nicolás Freire (25'), Rodrigo Aguirre (82').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.