Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peñaranda vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Peñaranda
Peñaranda
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
10/31/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peñaranda38%
×Draw30%
Atlético Tordesillas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peñaranda
1.10
Atlético Tordesillas
1.00

Peñaranda creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

creates per match

Peñaranda
1.13
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Peñaranda
0.88
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Peñaranda+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peñaranda ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Peñaranda or draw
68%
Peñaranda or Atlético Tordesillas
70%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
62%

Winning margin

Peñaranda wins by 2+
15%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Peñaranda 1+ goals
67%
Peñaranda 2+ goals
30%
Peñaranda 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
63%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Peñaranda (draw refunded)
54%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peñaranda at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peñaranda attack 1.13 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Peñaranda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Peñaranda scores more
38%
level
30%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
32%

Peñaranda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Peñaranda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peñaranda 0 – 2 Atlético Tordesillas

Atlético Tordesillas beat Peñaranda 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte in Peñaranda de Bracamonte.