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Atlético Tordesillas vs Peñaranda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Peñaranda
Peñaranda
1/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas63%
×Draw23%
Peñaranda14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.77
Peñaranda
0.69

Atlético Tordesillas creates 157% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 16 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
Peñaranda
0.69

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
Peñaranda
2.13

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Peñaranda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Peñaranda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
86%
Atlético Tordesillas or Peñaranda
77%
Draw or Peñaranda
37%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
37%
Peñaranda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
83%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
53%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
26%
Peñaranda 1+ goals
50%
Peñaranda 2+ goals
15%
Peñaranda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
82%
Peñaranda (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Peñaranda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Peñaranda defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.77

Peñaranda attack 0.69 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
63%
level
23%
Peñaranda scores more
14%

Atlético Tordesillas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Tordesillas 2–0 Peñaranda

Atlético Tordesillas beat Peñaranda 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.