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Penang vs Pahang — Malaysia Cup 2019

Penang
Penang
FT
0 – 2
Pahang
Pahang
9/18/2019Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 6Stadium Bandar Raya Pulau Pinang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Penang26%
×Draw23%
Pahang51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penang
1.28
Pahang
1.86

Pahang creates 45% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Penang
1.00
Pahang
1.81

allows per match

Penang
1.91
Pahang
1.56

finishing

Penang+0.00on par
Pahang+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penang ↓

Pahang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Penang or draw
49%
Penang or Pahang
77%
Draw or Pahang
74%

Winning margin

Penang wins by 2+
11%
Pahang wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Penang 1+ goals
72%
Penang 2+ goals
37%
Penang 3+ goals
14%
Pahang 1+ goals
84%
Pahang 2+ goals
55%
Pahang 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Penang (draw refunded)
34%
Pahang (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penang at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Pahang away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penang attack 1.00 + Pahang defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Pahang attack 1.81 + Penang defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Penang scores more
26%
level
23%
Pahang scores more
51%

Pahang at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pahang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penang vs Pahang

Pahang beat Penang 2-0 in Malaysia Cup on September 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium Bandar Raya Pulau Pinang in George Town.