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Pahang vs Penang — Malaysia Cup 2019

Pahang
Pahang
FT
4 – 0
Penang
Penang
10/30/2021Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadium Darulmakmur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pahang61%
×Draw21%
Penang18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pahang
2.02
Penang
0.99

Pahang creates 104% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Pahang
2.15
Penang
0.44

allows per match

Pahang
1.54
Penang
1.89

finishing

Pahang+0.00on par
Penang+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pahang ↓

Penang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pahang or draw
82%
Pahang or Penang
79%
Draw or Penang
39%

Winning margin

Pahang wins by 2+
37%
Penang wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pahang 1+ goals
87%
Pahang 2+ goals
60%
Pahang 3+ goals
33%
Penang 1+ goals
63%
Penang 2+ goals
26%
Penang 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pahang (draw refunded)
77%
Penang (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pahang at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Penang away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pahang attack 2.15 + Penang defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.02

Penang attack 0.44 + Pahang defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pahang scores more
61%
level
21%
Penang scores more
18%

Pahang at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pahang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Pahang 4–0 Penang

Pahang beat Penang 4-0 in Malaysia Cup on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadium Darulmakmur in Kuantan.