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Penang vs Kuala Lumpur FA — Malaysia Cup 2019

Penang
Penang
FT
1 – 1
Kuala Lumpur FA
Kuala Lumpur FA
9/29/2021Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Group Stage - 2Stadium Bandar Raya Pulau Pinang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Penang30%
×Draw24%
Kuala Lumpur FA46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penang
1.32
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.67

Kuala Lumpur FA creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Penang
1.00
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.43

allows per match

Penang
1.91
Kuala Lumpur FA
1.64

finishing

Penang+0.00on par
Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penang ↓

Kuala Lumpur FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Penang or draw
54%
Penang or Kuala Lumpur FA
76%
Draw or Kuala Lumpur FA
70%

Winning margin

Penang wins by 2+
13%
Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Penang 1+ goals
73%
Penang 2+ goals
38%
Penang 3+ goals
15%
Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals
81%
Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals
50%
Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Penang (draw refunded)
40%
Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penang at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Kuala Lumpur FA away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penang attack 1.00 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 1.43 + Penang defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Penang scores more
30%
level
24%
Kuala Lumpur FA scores more
46%

Kuala Lumpur FA at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kuala Lumpur FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Penang 1–1 Kuala Lumpur FA

Penang and Kuala Lumpur FA drew 1-1 in Malaysia Cup on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadium Bandar Raya Pulau Pinang in George Town.