Kuala Lumpur FA 1–0 Penang: Result & Stats

Kuala Lumpur FA

FT

1 – 0

Penang

11/7/2021

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 5KLFA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kuala Lumpur FA63%

×Draw23%

Penang14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuala Lumpur FAExpected goals in this matchPenang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.66

Kuala Lumpur FA

1.71

Penang

0.66

Kuala Lumpur FA creates 159% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

1.53

creates per match

0.44

0.87

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Kuala Lumpur FA

1.53

Penang

0.44

allows per match

Kuala Lumpur FA

0.87

Penang

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuala Lumpur FA+0.00on par

Penang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuala Lumpur FA ↓

Penang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kuala Lumpur FA or draw

86%

Kuala Lumpur FA or Penang

77%

Draw or Penang

37%

Winning margin

Kuala Lumpur FA wins by 2+

36%

Penang wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kuala Lumpur FA 1+ goals

82%

Kuala Lumpur FA 2+ goals

51%

Kuala Lumpur FA 3+ goals

24%

Penang 1+ goals

48%

Penang 2+ goals

14%

Penang 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Kuala Lumpur FA (draw refunded)

82%

Penang (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuala Lumpur FA at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Penang away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuala Lumpur FA attack 1.53 + Penang defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Penang attack 0.44 + Kuala Lumpur FA defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kuala Lumpur FA scores more

63%

level

23%

Penang scores more

14%

Kuala Lumpur FA at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kuala Lumpur FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff