Penafiel 0–1 Vizela: Result & Stats | Segunda Liga

Penafiel

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vizela

J. Sampaio 57'

3/21/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 27Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Penafiel36%

×Draw28%

Vizela36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PenafielExpected goals in this matchVizela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

Penafiel

1.19

Vizela

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 51 away

1.29

creates per match

1.33

1.05

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Penafiel

1.29

Vizela

1.33

allows per match

Penafiel

1.05

Vizela

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par

Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Vizela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw

64%

Penafiel or Vizela

72%

Draw or Vizela

64%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+

15%

Vizela wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals

70%

Penafiel 2+ goals

33%

Penafiel 3+ goals

12%

Vizela 1+ goals

70%

Vizela 2+ goals

33%

Vizela 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)

50%

Vizela (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.29 + Vizela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Vizela attack 1.33 + Penafiel defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Penafiel scores more

36%

level

28%

Vizela scores more

36%

Penafiel at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

J. Sampaio

Vizela · D

8.5

Match Events

46'

G. Negrao← A. Santos

57'

J. Sampaio↳ M. Lacava

64'

Reko← I. Kebe

64'

J. Sery← D. Rodrigues

68'

Heinz Mörschel

74'

lano Imbene← B. Pereira

74'

R. Alves←

76'

D. Loppy← R. Ramos

85'

A. Bastunov← M. Lacava

85'

Thio← H. Morschel

90+3'

Cláudio Silva

90+2'

Natanael Ntolla

90+1'

H. Ivanov← Moha Moukhliss

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PenafielVizela

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots14

3Corners7

12Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots14

2On Target5

5Off Target7

1Blocked2

5Inside Box6

3Outside Box8

Passing

40%Possession60%

293Total Passes441

224Accurate Passes384

76%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0