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Penafiel vs Vizela — Segunda Liga 2018

Penafiel
Penafiel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vizela
Vizela
S. Fatai 7'
Rúben Pereira 73' (OG)
1/26/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 19Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Penafiel36%
×Draw28%
Vizela36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penafiel
1.19
Vizela
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 51 away

creates per match

Penafiel
1.29
Vizela
1.33

allows per match

Penafiel
1.05
Vizela
1.08

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par
Vizela+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Vizela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw
64%
Penafiel or Vizela
72%
Draw or Vizela
64%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+
15%
Vizela wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals
70%
Penafiel 2+ goals
33%
Penafiel 3+ goals
12%
Vizela 1+ goals
70%
Vizela 2+ goals
33%
Vizela 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)
50%
Vizela (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

Vizela away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.29 + Vizela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Vizela attack 1.33 + Penafiel defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Penafiel scores more
36%
level
28%
Vizela scores more
36%

Penafiel at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
S. Fatai
27'
Ewerton
28'
Aleksandar Busnić
56'
Vivaldo Semedo← A. Busnić
60'
Maga
66'
N. Thio← D. Loppy
70'
Manuel Baldé
71'
Gustavo Fernandes← Ewerton
73'
Rúben PereiraOwn goal
79'
Gonçalo Negrão← Gabriel Barbosa
81'
Yannick Semedo
83'
Tiago Rodrigues
86'
Hélder Suker← Miguel Maga
90'
A. Bastunov← U. Milovanović
90'
Rodrigo Ramos← P. Obah

Shots

1Penafiel

Statistics

PenafielVizela
Overview
1Total Shots0
1Fouls0
Shots
1Total Shots0
1On Target0
Discipline
1Fouls0

Match Recap: Penafiel vs Vizela

Penafiel and Vizela drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on January 26, 2025.

Goals: S. Fatai (7'), Rúben Pereira (73' o.g.).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril in Penafiel.