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Penafiel vs Nacional — Segunda Liga 2018

Penafiel
Penafiel
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Nacional
Nacional
10/2/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 6Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Penafiel40%
×Draw27%
Nacional32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penafiel
1.30
Nacional
1.13

Penafiel creates 15% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 64 away

creates per match

Penafiel
1.29
Nacional
1.20

allows per match

Penafiel
1.05
Nacional
1.31

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par
Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw
68%
Penafiel or Nacional
73%
Draw or Nacional
60%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+
18%
Nacional wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals
73%
Penafiel 2+ goals
37%
Penafiel 3+ goals
14%
Nacional 1+ goals
68%
Nacional 2+ goals
31%
Nacional 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)
56%
Nacional (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

Nacional away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.29 + Nacional defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Nacional attack 1.20 + Penafiel defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Penafiel scores more
40%
level
27%
Nacional scores more
32%

Penafiel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penafiel vs Nacional

Nacional beat Penafiel 4-1 in Segunda Liga on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril in Penafiel.