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Nacional vs Penafiel — Segunda Liga 2018

Nacional
Nacional
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Penafiel
Penafiel
10/29/2022Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 11Estádio da Madeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Nacional52%
×Draw25%
Penafiel23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional
1.60
Penafiel
0.96

Nacional creates 67% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 132 away

creates per match

Nacional
1.79
Penafiel
1.01

allows per match

Nacional
0.90
Penafiel
1.41

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par
Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

Penafiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nacional or draw
77%
Nacional or Penafiel
75%
Draw or Penafiel
48%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+
28%
Penafiel wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals
80%
Nacional 2+ goals
47%
Nacional 3+ goals
22%
Penafiel 1+ goals
62%
Penafiel 2+ goals
25%
Penafiel 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)
70%
Penafiel (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.90 · 63 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 1.79 + Penafiel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

Penafiel attack 1.01 + Nacional defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nacional scores more
52%
level
25%
Penafiel scores more
23%

Nacional at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Nacional 1–1 Penafiel

Nacional and Penafiel drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio da Madeira in Ilha da Madeira.