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Penafiel vs Mafra — Segunda Liga 2018

Penafiel
Penafiel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mafra
Mafra
2/5/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 19Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Penafiel44%
×Draw27%
Mafra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penafiel
1.39
Mafra
1.08

Penafiel creates 29% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 114 away

creates per match

Penafiel
1.29
Mafra
1.10

allows per match

Penafiel
1.05
Mafra
1.49

finishing

Penafiel+0.00on par
Mafra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penafiel ↓

Mafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Penafiel or draw
71%
Penafiel or Mafra
73%
Draw or Mafra
56%

Winning margin

Penafiel wins by 2+
21%
Mafra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Penafiel 1+ goals
75%
Penafiel 2+ goals
40%
Penafiel 3+ goals
16%
Mafra 1+ goals
66%
Mafra 2+ goals
29%
Mafra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Penafiel (draw refunded)
60%
Mafra (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penafiel at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 133 matches

Mafra away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.49 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penafiel attack 1.29 + Mafra defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mafra attack 1.10 + Penafiel defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Penafiel scores more
44%
level
27%
Mafra scores more
29%

Penafiel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Penafiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Penafiel 1–0 Mafra

Penafiel beat Mafra 1-0 in Segunda Liga on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril in Penafiel.