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Mafra vs Penafiel — Segunda Liga 2018

Mafra
Mafra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Penafiel
Penafiel
3/9/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 25Estádio Municipal de Mafra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Mafra41%
×Draw28%
Penafiel31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mafra
1.29
Penafiel
1.09

Mafra creates 18% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 132 away

creates per match

Mafra
1.18
Penafiel
1.01

allows per match

Mafra
1.17
Penafiel
1.41

finishing

Mafra+0.00on par
Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra ↓

Penafiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mafra or draw
69%
Mafra or Penafiel
72%
Draw or Penafiel
59%

Winning margin

Mafra wins by 2+
18%
Penafiel wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mafra 1+ goals
72%
Mafra 2+ goals
37%
Mafra 3+ goals
14%
Penafiel 1+ goals
66%
Penafiel 2+ goals
30%
Penafiel 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mafra (draw refunded)
57%
Penafiel (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.17 · 114 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra attack 1.18 + Penafiel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Penafiel attack 1.01 + Mafra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mafra scores more
41%
level
28%
Penafiel scores more
31%

Mafra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mafra vs Penafiel

Penafiel beat Mafra 1-0 in Segunda Liga on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Mafra in Mafra.