Peña Sport 0–3 Fontellas: Result & Stats

Peña Sport

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fontellas

2/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 16Campo San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peña Sport76%

×Draw15%

Fontellas9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña SportExpected goals in this matchFontellas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

0.73

Peña Sport

2.51

Fontellas

0.73

Peña Sport creates 244% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 28 away

1.88

creates per match

0.57

0.89

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Peña Sport

1.88

Fontellas

0.57

allows per match

Peña Sport

0.89

Fontellas

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Sport+0.00on par

Fontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Sport ↓

Fontellas →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Peña Sport or draw

91%

Peña Sport or Fontellas

85%

Draw or Fontellas

24%

Winning margin

Peña Sport wins by 2+

53%

Fontellas wins by 2+

Team goals

Peña Sport 1+ goals

92%

Peña Sport 2+ goals

71%

Peña Sport 3+ goals

45%

Fontellas 1+ goals

52%

Fontellas 2+ goals

17%

Fontellas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Peña Sport (draw refunded)

90%

Fontellas (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peña Sport at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.89 · 92 matches

Fontellas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peña Sport attack 1.88 + Fontellas defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.51

Fontellas attack 0.57 + Peña Sport defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Peña Sport scores more

76%

level

15%

Fontellas scores more

Peña Sport at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff