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Fontellas vs Peña Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Fontellas
Fontellas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Peña Sport
Peña Sport
11/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 5Estadio Secarales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Fontellas24%
×Draw25%
Peña Sport51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontellas
0.99
Peña Sport
1.57

Peña Sport creates 59% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 93 away

creates per match

Fontellas
0.76
Peña Sport
1.38

allows per match

Fontellas
1.76
Peña Sport
1.23

finishing

Fontellas+0.00on par
Peña Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontellas ↓

Peña Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fontellas or draw
49%
Fontellas or Peña Sport
75%
Draw or Peña Sport
76%

Winning margin

Fontellas wins by 2+
9%
Peña Sport wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Fontellas 1+ goals
63%
Fontellas 2+ goals
26%
Fontellas 3+ goals
8%
Peña Sport 1+ goals
79%
Peña Sport 2+ goals
46%
Peña Sport 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fontellas (draw refunded)
32%
Peña Sport (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontellas at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

Peña Sport away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontellas attack 0.76 + Peña Sport defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Peña Sport attack 1.38 + Fontellas defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fontellas scores more
24%
level
25%
Peña Sport scores more
51%

Peña Sport at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fontellas vs Peña Sport

Fontellas and Peña Sport drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Secarales in Fontellas.