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Peña Sport vs Atlético Artajonés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Peña Sport
Peña Sport
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
1/10/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 17Campo San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Peña Sport65%
×Draw21%
Atlético Artajonés14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Sport
1.95
Atlético Artajonés
0.79

Peña Sport creates 147% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 34 away

creates per match

Peña Sport
1.88
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

allows per match

Peña Sport
0.89
Atlético Artajonés
2.03

finishing

Peña Sport+0.00on par
Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Sport ↓

Atlético Artajonés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Peña Sport or draw
86%
Peña Sport or Atlético Artajonés
79%
Draw or Atlético Artajonés
35%

Winning margin

Peña Sport wins by 2+
39%
Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Peña Sport 1+ goals
86%
Peña Sport 2+ goals
58%
Peña Sport 3+ goals
31%
Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
55%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Peña Sport (draw refunded)
82%
Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Sport at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.89 · 92 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Sport attack 1.88 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.95

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Peña Sport defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Peña Sport scores more
65%
level
21%
Atlético Artajonés scores more
14%

Peña Sport at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peña Sport vs Atlético Artajonés

Peña Sport beat Atlético Artajonés 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at Campo San Francisco in Tafalla.