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Atlético Artajonés vs Peña Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Peña Sport
Peña Sport
2/22/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 23Estadio La Alameda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Artajonés35%
×Draw26%
Peña Sport39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Artajonés
1.33
Peña Sport
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 93 away

creates per match

Atlético Artajonés
1.44
Peña Sport
1.38

allows per match

Atlético Artajonés
1.44
Peña Sport
1.23

finishing

Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par
Peña Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Artajonés ↓

Peña Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Artajonés or draw
61%
Atlético Artajonés or Peña Sport
74%
Draw or Peña Sport
65%

Winning margin

Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
16%
Peña Sport wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
15%
Peña Sport 1+ goals
76%
Peña Sport 2+ goals
41%
Peña Sport 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
48%
Peña Sport (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Artajonés at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Peña Sport away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Artajonés attack 1.44 + Peña Sport defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Peña Sport attack 1.38 + Atlético Artajonés defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Artajonés scores more
35%
level
26%
Peña Sport scores more
39%

Peña Sport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Artajonés vs Peña Sport

Atlético Artajonés and Peña Sport drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Alameda in Artajona.