Peña Deportiva 4–0 Marino de Luanco: Result & Stats

Peña Deportiva

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Marino de Luanco

Pepe Bernal 90+1'

David Sánchez 79'

Higor Rocha 32', 24'

3/1/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva60%

×Draw23%

Marino de Luanco17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña DeportivaExpected goals in this matchMarino de Luanco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.84

Peña Deportiva

1.81

Marino de Luanco

0.84

Peña Deportiva creates 115% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

1.93

creates per match

0.69

1.00

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Peña Deportiva

1.93

Marino de Luanco

0.69

allows per match

Peña Deportiva

1.00

Marino de Luanco

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Marino de Luanco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw

83%

Peña Deportiva or Marino de Luanco

77%

Draw or Marino de Luanco

40%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+

35%

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals

84%

Peña Deportiva 2+ goals

54%

Peña Deportiva 3+ goals

27%

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals

57%

Marino de Luanco 2+ goals

21%

Marino de Luanco 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)

78%

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.81

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more

60%

level

23%

Marino de Luanco scores more

17%

Peña Deportiva at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

32'

46'

59'

61'

C. Mboup← Iván Fernández

65'

David Sánchez← Jordan Gutiérrez

70'

Marc De Val← L. Pierce

77'

Mendi← Lora

79'

David Sánchez

84'

Loren Burón← Higor Rocha

90+1'

Pepe Bernal

Peña

Marino

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Rocha

Manager: Raúl Casañ

65'▲David Sánchez←▼Jordan Gutiérrez

70'▲Marc De Val←▼L. Pierce

84'▲Loren Burón←▼Higor Rocha

Peña Deportiva substitutes

SánchezValBurónCristetoAndradaMenaRomán

Manager: Oli

46'▲Álex Boedo←▼Mathe

61'▲C. Mboup←▼Iván Fernández

77'▲Mendi←▼Lora

Marino de Luanco substitutes

BoedoMboupMendiBustoTrabanco

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Peña Deportiva 4–0 Marino de Luanco

Peña Deportiva beat Marino de Luanco 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 1, 2020.

Goals: Higor Rocha (24', 32'), David Sánchez (79'), Pepe Bernal (90+1').

The match was played at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río in Ibiza.

Peña Deportiva vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Peña Deportiva 4–0 Marino de Luanco