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Marino de Luanco vs Peña Deportiva — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
10/13/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Marino de Luanco50%
×Draw26%
Peña Deportiva24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino de Luanco
1.48
Peña Deportiva
0.93

Marino de Luanco creates 59% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

creates per match

Marino de Luanco
1.04
Peña Deportiva
1.14

allows per match

Marino de Luanco
0.73
Peña Deportiva
1.93

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par
Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Peña Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw
76%
Marino de Luanco or Peña Deportiva
74%
Draw or Peña Deportiva
50%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
25%
Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
77%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
43%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
19%
Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
61%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
24%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
68%
Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Peña Deportiva away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.04 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Peña Deportiva attack 1.14 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more
50%
level
26%
Peña Deportiva scores more
24%

Marino de Luanco at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marino de Luanco vs Peña Deportiva

Marino de Luanco beat Peña Deportiva 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Miramar in Luanco.