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Peña Deportiva vs Las Rozas — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
10/6/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Peña Deportiva49%
×Draw26%
Las Rozas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Deportiva
1.50
Las Rozas
1.00

Peña Deportiva creates 50% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Peña Deportiva
1.93
Las Rozas
1.00

allows per match

Peña Deportiva
1.00
Las Rozas
1.07

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw
75%
Peña Deportiva or Las Rozas
74%
Draw or Las Rozas
51%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
25%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
78%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
44%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
19%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
63%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
26%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
66%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Las Rozas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Las Rozas attack 1.00 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more
49%
level
26%
Las Rozas scores more
25%

Peña Deportiva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peña Deportiva 2 – 1 Las Rozas

Peña Deportiva beat Las Rozas 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río in Ibiza.