Las Rozas 1–1 Peña Deportiva: Result & Stats

Las Rozas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peña Deportiva

2/23/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Las Rozas50%

×Draw25%

Peña Deportiva25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las RozasExpected goals in this matchPeña Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.07

Las Rozas

1.61

Peña Deportiva

1.07

Las Rozas creates 50% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.29

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Las Rozas

1.29

Peña Deportiva

1.14

allows per match

Las Rozas

1.00

Peña Deportiva

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Peña Deportiva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw

75%

Las Rozas or Peña Deportiva

75%

Draw or Peña Deportiva

50%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+

26%

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals

80%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

48%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

22%

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals

66%

Peña Deportiva 2+ goals

29%

Peña Deportiva 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

66%

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Peña Deportiva away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.29 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Peña Deportiva attack 1.14 + Las Rozas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Las Rozas scores more

50%

level

25%

Peña Deportiva scores more

25%

Las Rozas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff