Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peña Deportiva vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
CANC
22:00
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
5/16/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Peña Deportiva49%
×Draw27%
Atlético Baleares24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Deportiva
1.39
Atlético Baleares
0.89

Peña Deportiva creates 56% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Peña Deportiva
1.93
Atlético Baleares
0.77

allows per match

Peña Deportiva
1.00
Atlético Baleares
0.85

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw
76%
Peña Deportiva or Atlético Baleares
73%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
51%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
23%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
75%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
40%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
16%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
67%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 1.93 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Atlético Baleares attack 0.77 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more
49%
level
27%
Atlético Baleares scores more
24%

Peña Deportiva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peña Deportiva face Atlético Baleares (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Peña Deportiva hosting Atlético Baleares. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Peña Deportiva host Atlético Baleares at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.